Analysis
Ukrainian nationals protest in Erbil in solidarity with their country on February 27, 2022. Photo: Bilind T. Abdullah/Rudaw
ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - Ukraine has been dominating the headlines since Russian troops entered the country six days ago, sending shockwaves across the globe that a war in Europe could be a reality again after decades of relative peace with dire consequences for the world economy.
The impact of the war in Ukraine on Europe is evident, and at first glance, it seems to be limited to the continent and the Western world. One of the lessons from the long years of the Cold War is that friction between the US and Russia almost always has a global spillover. The repercussions an escalation in Ukraine could bring to the Middle East are complex and important, likely to affect three key aspects: security, energy, and food shortages.
Russia is the world’s top wheat exporter and Ukraine is known to be the breadbasket of Europe, but a little known fact is that Middle Eastern states rely heavily on Ukrainian agricultural exports. Globally, the price of wheat is expected to soar, raising the risk of worsening food insecurity in the Middle East.
Though Iraq and the Kurdistan Region are less reliant on wheat exports from Ukraine and Russia, most medicine supplies in the Region are sent from Ukraine.
Turkey
Out of the regional powers, Turkey finds itself in the most difficult situation, being a NATO member and seeking to maintain good relations with Russia. In January, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan even offered to mediate between Ukraine and Russia, placing himself in a neutral position and attempting to reposition the country as a key global player.
The 1936 Montreux Convention gives Turkey control over the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits which link the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea, giving the country important leverage over security and the way the war may pan out. Through the convention, Turkey has the power to limit access of warships to the straits during wartime.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has asked Erdogan to close the straits to Russian warships, which Turkey initially refused to do, and demanded that NATO tone down its rhetoric against Russia, while also opposing sanctions.
On Sunday, Turkey shifted its rhetoric and approach by calling the situation in Ukraine a “war” after days of trying to maintain neutrality. Turkey’s foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said in an interview with CNN Turk that “it is not a couple of airstrikes now, the situation in Ukraine is officially a war... We will implement the Montreux Convention.”
Wheat imports from Russia are also crucial now that bread prices in Turkey have doubled and the Turkish Lira is collapsing. Turkey’s tourism industry will also suffer a major blow given the importance of Ukrainian and Russian tourists.
Syria
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has been a devoted Russian ally since Russia launched an air offensive in Syria in 2015, backing Assad and securing his grip on power. Syria is a key strategic location where Russia has the Hmeimim airbase and is in control of the Tartus naval facility, enabling Russian access to the Mediterranean.
Syria has also been a testing ground for Russian weapons since 2015, and an opportuntiy for Putin to flaunt his military capabilities to the western world.
An escalation in the war in Ukraine and a global isolation of Russia could playout in the Syrian theatre of war.
The war in Ukraine “will complicate an already complicated environment in Syria, where state and non-state armed actors will leverage geopolitical disputes, security instability and stagnated peace talks to achieve their own ambitions in the country,” Andrew Freeman, Middle East and North Africa senior analyst at Control Risks, told Rudaw English on Tuesday.
In Syria, the US and Russia have been on opposing sides, with the former supporting the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Turkey has also been heavily involved in the Syrian civil war, backing anti-government rebel factions, and fighting the SDF.
Russia has played a significant role in preventing a Turkish incursion into northeastern Syria. The SDF are in a tough position by being backed by the US but depending on Russia for their security.
“As US and Turkish interests converge, the US could make concessions in northern Syria, but this is speculative and only if conflict in Ukraine drags on,” an anonymous security source inside Syria told Rudaw English on Sunday via WhatsApp.
When asked about the likelihood of a spillover into Syria, the source added that this would be possible only in a scenario of prolonged conflict in Ukraine.
Israel frequently carries out strikes in Syria, targeting Iran-affiliated militias, such as Lebanon's Hezbollah group which supports the Syrian army, in what it says is an effort to prevent them from securing further ground along its borders.
Russia controls Syrian airspace and has allowed Israel to carry out strikes targeting Iranian positions. Russia competes with Iran for influence in Syria, but if Israel decides to side with Ukraine, things could get heated in Syria.
Israel is close to both Russia and Ukraine and has been balancing its position so far, but that may change in the face of an escalation between Russia and the US, where Israel may be forced to pick a side.
Iraq and the Kurdistan Region
The impact of the war in Ukraine on the security of Iraq and the Kurdistan Region is minimal given that Russian presence here is limited to commercial interests. Sanctions on Russia may become an obstacle to business, particularly if they will be implemented on oil.
"The presence of Russian oil companies will make it difficult on Iraq to take an official stance on the conflict," Hamzeh Hadad, an independent analyst based in Baghdad told Rudaw English on Tuesday.
Hadad added that Iraq is less impacted given that its relationship with Russia is not as strong as the one enjoyed by Iran and Syria. Despite the weak political ties, it will face the challenge of "balancing between the East and West." Both Baghdad and Erbil "may be cautious in making statements," Hadad noted, mentioning that despite this, the Iraqi people are sympathetic to the plight the Ukrainians are facing, having endured years of conflict themselves.
Around ten Ukrainian companies have been supplying medicine to the Kurdistan Region over the past years, but they have now stopped due to conflict. A medical source told Rudaw English that the Region still has “good stock” for the time being but an escalation or a prolonged conflict will have an impact on medical supplies.
Wheat supplies in Iraq are expected to remain unaffected given its local production and purchase of around 150,000 tons of wheat from Australia in January.
Production in the Kurdistan Region is also expected to increase this year due to heavy rainfall, in comparison to last year when the Region experienced unprecedented droughts.
Rudaw reached out to the WFP in Iraq but they were not available for a comment regarding wheat supplies in the country.
An estimated number of 5,500 Iraqis, including Kurds, are in Ukraine according to the Iraqi foreign ministry. Iraq is currently cooperating with Poland to repatriate its citizens from Ukraine.
The security source also added that humanitarian aid to Iraq may be affected given that the country is no longer considered to be at war, and funding may be prioritized for Ukraine and other Middle Eastern countries in need, such as Yemen and Syria.
Wheat and Food insecurity
Russia is the world’s top wheat exporter and Ukraine is known to be the breadbasket of Europe, but a little known fact is that Middle Eastern states rely heavily on Ukrainian agricultural exports. Globally, the price of wheat is expected to soar.
The eastern part of the country, the main point of contention with Russia, is key to the Ukrainian agricultural sector and the current conflict between top wheat suppliers is expected to halt production and exports.
Conflict or a blockade of the Black Sea region would lead to a food crisis as the grain trade passes through the Bosphorus to reach markets in the region.
The Middle East is already confronting a dire food security situation as a result of continuous conflict, corruption, and political instability. According to a UN report from December 2021, nearly 69 million in the MENA region are undernourished. Following 11 years of war in Syria, “13.7 million Syrians now have limited or severely limited access to food,” Freeman said.
“The increase in the levels of undernourishment has occurred across all income levels, in conflict-affected as well as non-conflict countries,” the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization said in the report which examined data between 2019 and 2020.
An escalation in the current conflict will further exacerbate already existing food shortages, raising the risk of renewed civil unrest in the countries most affected in the region.
According to the US Department of Agriculture more than 40 percent of Ukraine’s wheat exports over 2020-2021 went to the Middle East and North Africa. Lebanon, Egypt, and Libya are the biggest buyers of Ukrainian exports in the region, while war-torn countries such as Yemen and Syria heavily rely on aid from international organizations such as the World Food Program (WFP), which purchase Ukrainian wheat to provide this aid.
“Prior to the Ukraine conflict, Syrian wheat imports had become smaller and more expensive – and these two factors will be exacerbated in the coming months given Syria’s prior reliance on Ukrainian wheat,” Freeman added regarding Syrian reliance on Ukrainian wheat imports.
David Beasley, the WFP’s executive director, warned that the prices of food, shipping, and fuel “will skyrocket” in the wake of the war in Ukraine, adding that its impact on Yemen will be “an absolute catastrophe.”
Just when you thought it could not get any worse: War in #Ukraine. This will have a dramatic impact on our ability to reach the 120M people we feed, inc. 8M in #Yemen who ALREADY get just half rations.
— David Beasley (@WFPChief) February 24, 2022
Now, food, fuel & shipping costs will skyrocket. An absolute catastrophe. pic.twitter.com/zTayAnAeqp
Energy
Following the invasion came the condemnations by the US and European powers, and with the condemnations came the sanctions.
The day Russian troops rolled into Ukraine, crude oil prices reached $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014.
The sanctions being slammed on Moscow have also pushed the spotlight on OPEC countries such as Saudi Arabia to see if they will increase production in order to stabilize prices, which the US has been urging them to do.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told French President Emmanuel Macron in a phone call on Sunday that Riyadh remains committed to the OPEC+ agreement and alliance, which include Russia.
The next OPEC+ meeting is set to take place on March 2 to decide the production level for April, but no change is expected.
The European Union depends on Russia for 40 percent of it natural gas and so far, there are no sanctions in place on Russian natural gas. In fact, Russian gas is still being pumped into Europe via Ukraine.
However, Russia may decide to limit its exports to Europe in retaliation for the harsh sanctions that have been imposed so far, and may continue to be implemented. In such a scenario, major Middle Eastern energy produces, like Iraq, could step in to fill the gap. This would boost their reputation as energy producers abroad, and could invite other European contracts in the future.
Days before the war started, the US and Qatar explored options to provide Europe with gas shipments in the event of escalation. Qatar’s energy minister said on February 22 that neither Qatar nor any other single country would be able to replace Russian supplies to Europe.
The destabilizing effect the war has had on oil prices may push the US and European powers to accelerate the process of finalizing the nuclear talks with Iran, as the restoration of the nuclear deal would enable Iranian oil to enter the markets, stabilizing the price.
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